Saturday, November 29, 2008

What's your plan for the worst case scenario?

So I'm reading the roundup of this attack in Mumbai and most of the pundits seem to think that, having failed to get large weapons of mass destruction into the United States, that the Mumbai model is what we can expact to see in the next wave of terrorist attacks in the USA, should any materialize.

The model seems to be train a number of small attack units in the techniques of urban assault, infiltrate them into the target country, then the target city, and coordinate a series of simultaneous attacks in that city so that the local emergency repsonders are overwhelmed in a way that guarantees no substantive counter-attack can be mounted.

We know that our southern border is porous, and that along that border, automatic weapons and small explosives (like grenades) are plentiful and easy to acquire. We also know that the goal of any attack is to increase the amount of time between when the attack starts and when the first armed counter attack begins. This is why individual shooters often target locations where they do not expect their potential victims to be armed, like college campuses and malls... similarly, for any terrorist group, I would assume that if they want to inflict the maximum possible damage, they would plan to attack cities where the citizenry are prevented by local government from arming and defending themselves.

To me this means that cities with strong gun control laws and numerous "gun free zones" like Los Angeles, Washington DC, Philadelphia, and Chicago become the most likely targets. And given Los Angeles' proximity to that porous southern border... if you live in L.A., you pretty much have to consider yourself a prime target as of this past weekend.

So where does that leave us? Well here's the problem. I don't know about you, but my blackberry stops working if a stiff wind blows... imagine what would happen if a couple thousand people in one city all called for help at the same time.

Face it, if you're out in public and the bad guys start shooting... no one is coming to help you. You are very likely going to be on your own.

So what are you going to do about it?

I have an emergency plan... do you?

UPDATE: Mark Steyn agrees with my assessment, though he names New Orleans as a target due to inept city mangement. Not a bad guess, actually. The citizenry are more well-armed though. I still think Los Angeles provides the perfect mix of oppressive gun regulation, unarmed citizenry, and proximity to the spot where the bad guys will most likely enter the country.

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