Great election kid, don't get cocky!

So President-Elect Obama has not asked for my advice, but I'm going to give it anyway... because when the First President of the United States offers his advice, I think you should listen.

1) DO NOT pursue the Fairness Doctrine.

I'm willing to take Obama at his word that he aspires to bring a new spirit of bi-partisanship to Washington. That said, The Fairness Doctrine is to Conservatives as overturning Roe V. Wade would be to an employee of Planned Parenthood... that is to say it is one of THE most radioactive issues on the table. If Obama comes out of the gate with an announcement that he wants to re-implement the Fairness Doctrine, it will be correctly interpreted by Republicans/Conservatives, as a declaration of open warfare.

Just. Don't. Do it.

2) Do not abandon Iraq in favor of Afghanistan

This one's really gonna hurt, I know it. After all, you've been promising to do this for 4 years. But it would be a dumb move, and I'm going to tell you why.

We are winning Iraq. Combat deaths have dwindled to a statistical insignificance... 7 combat deaths in October... 7! Of course we would all prefer that the number was zero, but in a war, you take your good news where you can find it.

The reason we are winning in Iraq is because we've successfully convinced those who might have fought against us, that they too have something to lose if Al Qaeda wins. This was only possible because it's the truth. Iraq was a flourishing, well-educated, vibrant nation before Saddam took over and evil-ed it into the ground. But because many of the well-educated and industrious among them have returned in the wake of Saddam's well-deserved death, or never left in the first place, the infrastructure is in place for a return to those days of wine and roses. But it's going to take a lot of work, probably stretching into the next several Presidents' administrations. Fortunately, so far, Iraqis seem to be willing to do it.

Afghanistan, on the other hand is a total mess. Afghan society has not evolved significantly in a milennium. They are tribal (which means there is no real national identity, no common ideal to fight for), mostly uneducated, and often completely illiterate. The country has no infrastucture, no industry, no business, and a President with a funny hat. Their biggest cash crop is opium, and daily existence is often a matter of simple day-to-day survival. Nothing more.

Convincing them to lay down their lives for an ideal is going to be an impossible task... they simply do not have anything to lose.

I trust Michael Yon's reporting on these issues more than any other journalist in the world, and as he makes clear in this post, the surge strategy that worked so well in Iraq probably cannot be similarly successful in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, this is exactly the strategy you have said you would like to pursue there.

Yon, and many others smarter than I, think it would be a disaster.

The war in Iraq is not yet won, but victory is on the near horizon. You have a unique opportunity here to walk into a series of victories which have already been teed up for you. Will you have to share some of the credit with George Bush? Sure... but isn't that what bi-partisanship is all about?

Don't make the mistake of sacrificing sure victory in Iraq, even if you can't claim 100% of the credit, for a brutal quagmire in a place where our efforts are likely to fail, and worse, to be completely unappreciated in the bargain.

There's a couple for free... more to come.