Technology, the Economy, and the L.A. Supermarket Strike

I'm not the kind of guy who jumps down the throat of private sector unionized workers looking for a raise. If those industries want to handle their business through unions and striking, that's none of my business. And so when Los Angeles supermarket workers went on strike in 2003 I did not take the opportunity to remind those arguing that supermarkets were not paying them enough to raise their families that no one asked them to try and raise a family on a supermarket checkout salary.

Better to take the high road.

I did, however, make the following argument to a friend.... I said look, these supermarket employees will wind up getting a raise. This strike will get settled and the employees will get just enough of a salary bump to make them feel like it was worthwhile to strike. But here's the thing... Major technological changes are coming to retail business and anyone who takes this raise and goes back to life as usual is a fool. Treat this strike as a bullet dodged and go out into the world, and while you're making more money, train yourself for something better. Because when that next strike comes, you will not get a raise... You will get replaced by a machine.

Ten years later, I would guess not many of Los Angeles' supermarket workers took my advice. More's the pity because those machines are already here.

Saw a story the other day on smart grocery carts. You place your groceries in the cart and a sensor automatically adds the item to your bill, which you pay by swiping a card on your way out the door.

Let me tell you something, the second, the VERY second these machines go online and show reliability, they'll be ordered by every supermarket in America... and, no, it's not because supermarket owners are hateful horrible people who can't wait to fire their employees. No, they are going to be adopted by every supermarket in American because it's what their customers want.

Let me say that again. Human employees are going to be replaced because IT'S WHAT THEIR CUSTOMERS WANT.

Think about it this way, when you go to the grocery store, where is the bottleneck? What part of your grocery store trip take the most time? That's right, it's the moment where your desire to get out quickly is overcome by the inability of a human being to scan 75 items any faster than they already do. It's that interminable period of time where you stand behind some old grandma unloading her full-to-the-brim shopping cart one cherry tomato at a time while the checkout lady swipes the same jar of peanut butter across the scanner 57 times hoping for a beep. If the store could eliminate that bottle neck, they'd save you 15 minutes, minimum. on a busy day at the store.

There's not a customer in the world who wouldn't cheer that result. Sure they'd spend a half-second wondering what would happen to all those nice people behind the checkout lanes, but that's it. One single trip to the supermarket on a busy Saturday without running into the old lady and her cherry tomatoes and it's over Johnny.

Think about all the jobs lost at Supermarkets alone. My local supermarket has 10 checkout lanes, each manned by one scanner and one bagger, times three shifts (my store is open 24 hours). Once the smart carts arrive, that's a minimum of 60 jobs lost... at one store... overnight.

Yikes.

So what should yo do if you're standing in the way of this speeding, out-of-control, gravel truck? I'll say again what I said 12 years ago... start training for your next job now. Not tomorrow, today. I don't know how long you have, but not long. Maybe five years before we're all using these things every day... along with checkout kiosks at fast foot restaurants... and table-mounted tablets at sit-down chains like Chillis and Applebees... and god knows what else.